The product that creates the most revenue is not necessarily the one that can fund another paid acquisition. During Black Friday, the gap matters because a merchant usually discounts price, not the cost of buying, picking, packing or replacing the product.
Adobe's actual 2025 holiday report found that peak discounts reached 25.1% in apparel and 30.9% in electronics during the season. These figures describe observed promotional depths in broad U.S. categories, not normal margins or recommended discounts for your assortment 1. A brand with thin product contribution cannot infer a safe discount from a market average.
Build a SKU contribution table before the creative brief
Below is an illustrative three-item portfolio. It is intentionally not branded as a real merchant dataset.
| Metric per order | Product A | Product B | Product C |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal net selling price | $60 | $110 | $180 |
| Product cost | $28 | $45 | $98 |
| Shipping, fees and fulfillment | $13 | $18 | $29 |
| Pre-ad contribution | $19 | $47 | $53 |
| 20% discounted price | $48 | $88 | $144 |
| Contribution after discount | $7 | $25 | $17 |
Product A looks accessible and may sell in high volume. But after discount it has only $7 available before acquisition cost. Product B supports $25. Product C has high revenue and a higher normal contribution, yet the larger absolute discount causes it to fall to $17.
If one of these products attracts a $20 CPA, only B retains positive post-ad contribution at the discounted price in this example. That is a fundamentally different campaign decision from choosing the three top sellers by revenue.
Four factors sales-volume reports hide
Return exposure. A product with strong demand but high return costs can generate revenue that reverses after the holiday. NRF and Happy Returns estimated that 19.3% of online sales would be returned in 2025. This is an industry estimate, not a forecast for any individual SKU; measure your own cohorts 2.
Fulfillment complexity. Oversized products, fragile goods, unusual packaging and split shipments may carry variable costs your product dashboard excludes.
Inventory and reorder risk. A high-margin SKU with twelve units available cannot scale indefinitely. A lower-margin SKU with healthy stock may be commercially preferable if it meets a minimum contribution target.
Acquisition mix. A product bought primarily by returning customers should not automatically receive the same acquisition budget as a first-order product. Segment by new versus returning orders where measurement permits.
The promotion-selection rule
For each SKU or intended bundle, calculate revenue after discount, product cost, variable handling and shipping, processing fees, expected return allowance and maximum tolerable acquisition cost. Set a hard minimum contribution threshold that fits the business's cash obligations. Then check available-to-promise inventory and shipping capacity.
A product qualifies for the promotional shortlist when it can create incremental contribution at a realistic demand level. You still need to test whether buyers would have ordered it without the offer. Do not call the extra orders incremental merely because a promotion was active.
Use the product's economics in the marketing concept
The promotion does not always need a blanket 25% code. Depending on the assortment, a bundle, tiered offer, limited eligible collection, gift with purchase or shipping threshold may protect contribution better. Each alternative has to be modeled and then tested in the actual Shopify discount configuration.
Compare your own SKUs: build a matrix of normal contribution, discounted contribution, allowable CPA, stock cover and return risk. Choose the offer from the matrix, not the other way around.
Run the numbers for your store
The values below are an example. Replace them with your own. Nothing you type leaves your browser, no sign-up is needed, and taxes are excluded.
Sources
- Adobe, 2025 U.S. Holiday Actuals, January 7, 2026 news.adobe.com
- NRF/Happy Returns, 2025 Retail Returns Landscape, October 15, 2025 nrf.com
Nenad Vasic
Founder and CEO of Fenix Network Media. His work focuses on the economics behind customer acquisition, conversion, measurement and profitable growth. Calculations in this article are original; third-party figures belong to their publishers and are credited in the sources.
Compare contribution by SKU
Use your own numbers, then bring the result to a conversation if you want a second set of eyes on the plan.
